U.S. sinking in Iraq quagmire

ANDREW GREELEY

_Faced with persistent sabotage
and an increase in guerrilla
violence, the Bush adminis-
tration faces unpalatable options
in Iraq, especially as the country
approaches the beginning of the
>year before the election. Real im-
perial powers ought not to be dis-
tracted by elections.
It can send more American
troops, either National Guard or
Reserve units, or new units drawn
from recruits or eventually per-
haps from a draft. This choice is
unpalatable because it would be an
admission that the administration
had made serious mistakes in its
calculations about how many
troops were needed. Moreover, it
would give the lie to the presi-
dent's claim on the aircraft carrier
that the war is over.
It can invite the United Nations
to send in troops. However, the
other Security Council countries
are not likely to approve such ac-
tion unless the United States eats
humble pie, admits that it was
mistaken in its confidence, and
permits the UN to take charge of
Iraq. It is virtually unthinkable
that the president could accept
that humiliation in an election
year.
It can withdraw from Iraq. If the
army ever manages to capture
Saddam Hussein, it can claim vic-

tory and say in effect to the Iraqis,
we know you don't want us here.
We don't want to be here either.
Rebuild your country yourselves.
Fight the swarming Saudi berserk-
ers yourselves. We're out of here.
But such a strategy--probably the
wisest--would also be an admis-
sion of failure.
It can continue the present
strategy, at the cost of $1 billion a
week, hoping that the United
States can muddle through and
that, as was said in Vietnam, there
seems to be light at the end of the
tunnel. Eventually, the Iraqis may
settle down and the neighboring
countries can stop the flow of
Saudi and Palestinian crazies. In
another six months things might
be a lot better. However, at the
present rate, they may be a lot
worse. American soldiers may still
die every day and truck bombs
__________
This paradigm is so
similar to Vietnam as to
be frightening.

may explode every other week.
The military would be tied down
in a seeming never-ending war.
This paradigm is so similar to
Vietnam as to be frightening.
Yet, the administration might
well decide, that if the ''sacrifices''
in Iraq can be portrayed as neces-
sary to win the ''war on terrorism,''
Bush may keep his eclat as an able
wartime president and win the
election despite being trapped in
the big muddy. He might be suc-
cessful in situations that doomed
both Harry Truman and Lyndon
Johnson.
One recalls what Sen. George
Aiken said of Vietnam: The best

strategy would be to claim victory
and go home. The present admin-
istration has proven itself very
skilled at spinning reality so that
truth becomes invisible. Does any-
one remember ''compassionate''
conservatism? Or ''no nation
building''? Or more recently, the
president's claim that his energy
bill would solve the problem of the
nation's erratic electric grid?
Everyone knows, don't they, that
Alaskan petroleum is just what the
grid needs? The spinmasters could
fool the majority of the American
people into believing that defeat
was really victory. Having been
clever enough to steal an election,
the administration may well be
able to pull off an imaginary vic-
tory in Iraq. What's the point in
being a Teflon president unless
you can do that? So far, most
Americans still dismiss criticism of
the administration's Iraq policy as
''politics.''
Finally, God, who apparently
advised Bush to invade Iraq, might
well intervene with a miracle be-
cause everyone knows that God is
on our side, isn't He?
The American public grows
skeptical of prolonged wars rather
quickly. But this is a special time
in the nation's history. The savage
jolt to American self-confidence
and self-esteem caused by the
World Trade Center attack has
played into the hands of the spin-
ners. They got us into the war by
playing games with the truth.
They may also be able to spin a
coverup that will persuade the
public that the Iraq situation is
not as bad as it seems. Can they
get away with it? Maybe they can
also pretend that unemployment is
not serious.
I wouldn't bet against them.